Auckland (The NZ Today)
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is facing another round of questions over his leadership as National MPs prepare to meet on Tuesday night, just months after he called a confidence vote to settle doubts over his position.
Senior National minister Chris Bishop confirmed the caucus would meet online tonight but said Luxon’s leadership was not on the agenda and that the Prime Minister continued to have his full confidence.
The meeting comes after fresh reports of conversations among National MPs about whether the party should consider a change at the top before the November election.
The New Zealand Herald reported on Monday that one National MP had received several calls about a possible leadership change, with the unnamed MP claiming there would be a change and that the remaining question was who would replace Luxon.
RNZ subsequently contacted about 10 National MPs and received mixed responses. Some refused to discuss the issue, others said they were unaware of any leadership moves, while at least one dismissed the speculation entirely. Another MP told RNZ the direct comments being reported suggested there could be some substance behind the talk.
Bishop, National’s third-ranked MP and one of the names being discussed publicly as a possible future leader, declined to engage with the speculation on Tuesday and reiterated his support for Luxon.
The latest tension follows a difficult period for the Prime Minister.
Luxon apologised last week after telling Rotorua business leaders they needed to move away from what he described as a “parent-child mentality”. He was also questioned over his response to Winston Peters’ comments about Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan, which Luxon himself described as racist.
Further scrutiny followed over Luxon’s use of a Defence Force aircraft after attending a National Party fundraising event.
Then came his unexpected declaration that a re-elected National Government would hold another referendum on MMP — an announcement that caught several of his own MPs and coalition partners by surprise.
This week, Luxon again found himself explaining National’s tax position after acknowledging that increases to fuel excise, an accommodation levy and further taxation of banks could all remain possible under a future National-led government.
The timing is particularly sensitive for National because some MPs have been concerned for months that Luxon’s personal popularity could affect the party vote and ultimately determine whether lower-ranked MPs return to Parliament.
The July RNZ-Reid Research poll put National on 28.7 percent, its fourth consecutive fall in that polling series and its lowest result since Luxon became leader in 2021.
A more recent Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll was better for National, putting the party on 31 percent and showing the current coalition narrowly able to retain government if the figures were repeated on election day.
Questions about Luxon’s leadership first reached a critical point in April, when he sought a formal confidence vote from his caucus. Luxon won and later said the result had confirmed he had the backing of National MPs.
Reports have suggested the vote may have been 27-22 in Luxon’s favour, although the numbers have never been officially confirmed.
Four months later, leadership speculation has returned.
Luxon has continued to insist he has the support of his caucus and remains confident in his leadership, while Bishop says there is no leadership discussion scheduled for tonight’s meeting.
But with less than three months until the November 7 election, the caucus meeting will inevitably be closely watched for any sign that dissatisfaction inside National is growing — or whether Luxon still has enough support to shut the speculation down once again.
