Auckland (The NZ Today)
The Green Party says the recent surge of young New Zealanders moving overseas could cost the country $76 billion in lost GDP over the next four decades, as it argues more needs to be done to create jobs and keep younger workers at home.
The party commissioned Victor Consulting to assess the long-term economic impact of higher emigration among people aged 18 to 30.
According to the analysis, around 77,500 New Zealanders in that age group left the country long-term between 2023 and 2025.
The report estimates that, compared with pre-Covid emigration trends, the additional departures could eventually translate into around $40 billion in lost earnings, $6 billion in lost public investment and net tax revenue, and $76 billion in foregone GDP.
Those figures are projections based on assumptions about how many emigrants return, their future earnings and tax contributions, rather than losses already recorded in the economy.
The study also estimates that about $29 billion in public spending on education and healthcare had already been invested in the group before they left.
Using a Treasury estimate that a significant proportion of young New Zealanders who leave do not return, the report calculates that around $12 billion of that investment could ultimately be lost permanently.
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said overseas travel and the traditional OE remained a normal part of life for many young New Zealanders, but argued the scale of recent departures was different.
She said young people were increasingly following employment opportunities offshore and that government policy should focus on creating more reasons for them to build their careers in New Zealand.
The Greens have made employment creation a central part of their economic platform, saying their fiscal and investment programme would generate an additional 64,000 jobs beyond those already forecast over the next four years.
The party’s wider 2026 manifesto also identifies the growing number of New Zealanders living overseas as a policy concern and argues that younger people need stronger economic opportunities and connections at home.
Swarbrick said keeping more young people in New Zealand would require tackling the cost of living, improving job opportunities and strengthening economic resilience.
Source: RNZ
