Auckland (The NZ Today)
Labour’s support has continued to soften in the latest poll-of-polls analysis, while National’s numbers remain largely unchanged with the election now less than two months away.
The latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls estimates Labour’s support at 27.6 percent, marking a further decline after the party dropped below the 30 percent mark in the model last month.
National is estimated to be polling at 29.9 percent, maintaining a similar level of support recorded in the model since April.
The latest analysis combines recent polling data, including the Anacta and The Post-Freshwater Strategy polls, to calculate an average estimate of party support.
Among smaller parties, New Zealand First is estimated at 12 percent, followed by the Greens at 11.6 percent, Opportunity at 8 percent, and ACT at 7.9 percent. Te Pāti Māori sits at an estimated 2.1 percent.
The poll-of-polls model also examined possible government formation scenarios based on current support levels.
It estimates the current governing bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First has a higher chance of securing enough seats compared with opposition groupings, although the final outcome will depend on election results and coalition negotiations after voting.
The model uses thousands of election simulations and adjusts for differences between polling companies to estimate possible trends rather than predicting the final result.
The latest figures come as parties intensify their campaigns ahead of the November 7 general election, with the race expected to focus heavily on issues including the economy, cost of living, housing, immigration and public services.
Source: NZ Herald–Motu Research Poll of Polls, incorporating Anacta and The Post-Freshwater Strategy poll data.
