Coalition back in power as new poll puts Opportunity below 5% threshold

Auckland (The NZ Today)

The current coalition government would retain power if an election were held today, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, with the Opportunity Party losing its position as a potential kingmaker after falling below the 5 percent party vote threshold.

The poll puts National, ACT and New Zealand First on 64 seats combined, compared with 56 seats for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

National remains the largest party, although its support has dropped two percentage points to 29 percent. Labour also declined, falling 1.9 points to 25.9 percent.

The biggest gains went to ACT and the Greens.

ACT increased by 3.2 points to 10.5 percent, while the Greens climbed 3.8 points to 13.9 percent.

New Zealand First slipped slightly, down 0.7 points to 8.4 percent.

The biggest movement was recorded by the Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, which dropped from 6.1 percent to 4.5 percent.

Under New Zealand’s MMP system, a party generally needs at least 5 percent of the party vote or to win an electorate seat to bring additional MPs into Parliament. Based on this poll, Opportunity would receive no seats and would not hold the balance of power.

The result contrasts with some recent polling where Opportunity had moved into a potential kingmaker position.

Te Pāti Māori rose slightly to 2 percent and, according to the poll’s seat projections, would win three seats through electorate support.

Other parties included NZ Loyal at 1.5 percent, Animal Justice at 1.2 percent, Women’s Rights at 0.7 percent, and both Vision NZ and New Conservatives on 0.5 percent.

In the preferred prime minister rankings, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon remained ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins, although both recorded declines.

Luxon fell two points to 21.2 percent, while Hipkins dropped 2.9 points to 16.9 percent.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll surveyed 1,000 adult New Zealanders between September 1 and September 3, 2026, through phone and online methods. The poll has a maximum margin of error of ±3.1 percent.

Source: Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll; RNZ.